- Fed Funds --

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Squeezing the Real estate market

Today a Bloomberg journalist asked a good question to Nouriel Roubini :

"why haven't we entered into a recession already ?"

Nouriel repeated the usual contagion story, from sub prime to prime etc ...
But i think there is a much more simple answer, considering that 72% of US GDP is due to consumer spending, if the economy is still performing relatively well, the consumer is still alive. So the right question should be:

where the money is coming from now ?
Certainly not from the credit market, the private saving is also near zero, and i see no new bubbling market yet. Maybe the answer lies in the question, the money is still coming from the same place but in a reverse way.
The real estate market may be headed for a crash but nationally the home value started to fall only since June 2006 and the prices remains around june 2005 level. So some juice remain in there for the MEW.


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