Gloomy mood at Jackson hole

"There's a pretty strong consensus that this has gotten a lot more serious." Ethan Harris

Bernanke's Pledge Fails to Dispel Pessimism at Jackson Retreat
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg)

I came to Jackson Hole thinking there would be no recession, but I'm leaving thinking we could well have one,'' said Susan Wachter, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, who co-wrote the first academic paper presented at the conference.
There are no optimists in the crowd here,'' said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers
Martin Feldstein of Harvard University warned of a ``very serious downturn'' and called on policy makers to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point.

Yale University professor Robert Shiller said house prices in some U.S. cities may fall by as much as half, while Leamer predicted declines in some areas of 30 percent to 40 percent. Feldstein saw the chance of a ``substantial decline'' in spending because consumers won't be able to borrow as much against the value of their homes.

Bernanke said in the opening speech that the Fed will ``act as needed'' to protect the expansion.

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Edward E. Leamer knocked out the audience by discussing business and housing cycles.
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